The Beta Project Begins 7/27/2009

The Beta Project begins trading 7/27. I will once again show that when done correctly, market timing trading can indeed beat the S&P 500. Last year I showed that my trading strategy outperformed the S&P 500, realizing a 12.5% return while the S&P 500 returned -13.7% during the same time period. Keep watching this site and follow "StockLogicProj" on Twitter to see daily trading activity.

The goal of the Beta Project is to outperform the S&P 500 by 300%. Don't believe me, just watch!

Project Alpha Complete

It is one year later from when I made the statement that I would do 300% better than the S&P. During the period of 8/1/07 and 8/1/08 I made 23 trades which resulted in a 12.5% return - including round turn commissions. The S&P was down 13.4% during the same period.

All trades were long.

All trades were made on stocks on the NASDAQ, AMEX or NYSE. They all had daily volume of greater than 100,000

My model used no proprietary information to make trading decisions - all my data came from Yahoo Finance. No $99/month newsletters were used.

All trades were put in before the market open. No trades were put in during market hours. All the trades I put in were posted the night before on this site. Nothing up my sleeve. In fact, there were some positions I would have done better with, but I couldn't get to the site that night to post - so I had to get in or out a day late.

Here are the final stats:

% Trades Successful = 57%

Average Gain of successful trade = 20.2%

Average loss of unsuccessful trade = -16.3%

Stats weren't that great, huh? Well that was always my point.  This year was one of the most volatile markets I have remembered. Next time you plop down a check for fees on your money manager's desk, think about how little he or she has to do to make a respectable return on your account. I'm no genius people - I'm just a guy who can incorporate some common sense into a mathematical model and code it.

I'll start up a new project if anyone is interested. Make a challenge. I am thinking something along the lines of 5 x times market and I must hold each position greater than 90 days? I don't know - all ideas are welcome.

Using 15% of Available Capital to Buy JDAS
Using 15% of available capital to buy JDA Software Group Inc (JDAS) at tomorrow's open. The system backtested the data over the last 6 months and realized an 11% gain 9 of 11 times, resulting in a cumulative gain of over 103%.

Portfolio still rising in value, even with crash last Friday

Without any additional trades, the portfolio has risen to 19.12% since inception.  The S&P during the same timeframe is down 6.53%.

To view the portfolio, please go to

 http://www.stocklogicproject.com/portfolio

 

 

Portfolio is up 14.33% since inception, S&P is down 6.94%

TO view the current portfolio, please go to

 http://www.stocklogicproject.com/portfolio

 

Pretty quiet but doing quite well, thank you

The volatility in the long market has minimized activity, but the numbers are still good and quite in line with proposed goals:

Current Portfolio gain since 8/1/07: 9.99%

S&P 500 gain since 8/1/07: -8.66%

Info on closed positions:

Average Gain (Successful Trade)			25.78%
Average Gain (Unsuccessful Trade)			-6.76%
% Closed Trades Successful			64.29%

 

To view the portfolio, please visit:

http://www.stocklogicproject.com/portfolio

Big gains from CY and MCZ today

CY is now up 7.39% in 17 days, MCZ 10% in 20 days. Will be monitoring the stocks day to day in order to set a protective stop.

Portfolio is at 16.48% since 8/1/07, while the S&P 500 is -6% during the same time frame.

Buying CY at 1/28 market open
Using 15% of available capital to buy Cypress Semiconductors (CY) before the 1/28 open. During the last 270 days there were 9 buy signals generated, with 8 of them resulting in a gain of at least 10%. Cumulative gain is 103.64%.

Keeping Score in Troubled Times

Here is how the portfolio is doing thus far:

Portfolio Percentage Gain since 8/1/07: 12.07%

The S&P Gain during same period: -8.59%

% Closed Positions resulting is a gain: 69%

Average % Gain for Successful Closed Positions:  25.78%

Average % Loss for Unsuccessful Closed Positions: 8.44%

To view the Portfolio please go to:

http://www.stocklogicproject.com/portfolio

Sold TKC on 1/25

Stop for TKC was reached today, resulting in a 9.5% gain in 3 days.